Orlando Florida (US), October 22, 2018: Tech analyst Gartner, has revealed its top predictions for 2019 and beyond, examining three fundamental effects of continued digital innovation: artificial intelligence (AI) and skills, cultural advancement, and processes becoming products that result from increased digital capabilities and continuous conceptual change in technology.
“As the advance of technology concepts continues to outpace the ability of enterprises to keep up, organizations now face the possibility that so much change will increasingly seem chaotic. But chaos does not mean there is no order. The key is that CIOs will need to find their way to identifying practical actions that can be seen within the chaos, says Daryl Plummer, Vice President and Distinguished Gartner Fellow., “Continuous change can be made into an asset if an organization sharpens its vision in order to see the future coming ahead of the change that vision heralds. Failing that, there must be a focus on a greater effort to see the need to shift the mindset of the organization. With either of these two methods, practical actions can be found in even the seemingly unrelated predictions of the future.”
Gartner analysts presented the top 10 strategic predictions during the Gartner Symposium/ITxpo, which is taking place here:|
1. AI skills don’t scale
Through 2020, 80% of AI projects will remain alchemy, run by wizards whose talents will not scale in the organization.In the past five years, the increasing popularity and hype surrounding AI techniques have led to an increase in projects across organizations. However, the overwhelming hype has also led to unreasonable expectations from the business. Further, change is outpacing the production of competent professionals, which means that AI is more an art form than a science. The lack of a common language among all parties remains as a barrier to scalability, as does how specific and narrow most AI skill sets remain. Combining new skills with AI-based automation will unlock scale potential.
2. AI locates missing people
By 2023, there will be an 80% reduction in missing people in mature markets compared to 2018, due to AI face recognition.Over the next few years, advances in AI will lead to increasingly sophisticated facial recognition technology, particularly useful in identifying lost children or elderly citizens. Although current facial recognition is limited in application, the speed of recognition using one-to-many matching, even in large sample sets, is less than 600 microseconds.
3.Virtual care improves health
By 2023, U.S. emergency department visits will be reduced by 20 million due to enrollment of chronically ill patients in AI-enhanced virtual care.Virtual healthcare has demonstrated that it can offer more convenient and cost-effective care than conventional face-to-face care. Clinician shortages, in addition to an increased focus on outcomes, coordinated care and population health, are driving a push to more efficient and effective care models. Successful use of virtual care lowers costs and improves quality of delivery as well as overall access to care.
4. Affidavits fail cyberbullying
By 2023, 25% of organizations will require employees to sign affidavits to avoid cyberbullying, but 70% of these initiatives will fail.In an attempt to curb workplace cyberbullying, enterprises will strengthen workplace codes of conduct and require employees to sign affidavits of agreement. However, cyberbullying isn’t eradicated by agreements — that requires a shift in organizational culture. Companies should begin to train employees to recognize and report cyberbullying.
5. Diversity drives financial targets
Through 2022, 75% of organizations with frontline decision-making teams reflecting a diverse and inclusive culture will exceed their financial targets.Companies understand the benefits of diversity, but must now move toward a focus on different types of diversity (e.g., thought processes and work styles) and a deliberate focus on inclusivity. These policies should be co-developed by business and HR leaders.
6. Personal data poisons blockchain
By 2022, 75% of public blockchains will suffer “privacy poisoning” — inserted personal data that renders the blockchain noncompliant with privacy laws.With the steep learning curve associated with blockchain technology, developers are at risk for accidentally storing personal data in a noncompliant way. Because blockchains are immutable, personal data can’t be deleted without compromising chain integrity. However, continuing to store personal data violates privacy legislation. Establish privacy-by-design principles at the onset of the blockchain architecture, including a ban on free text, where personal data would be stored.
7. Privacy laws cripple ad sales
By 2023, e-privacy regulations will increase online costs by minimizing the use of “cookies,” thus crippling the current internet ad revenue machine.As legislation to protect consumers’ data becomes more prevalent, it will impede the current internet advertising infrastructure and its major players. Traditionally, companies use consumer data via cookies to personalize and direct ads, but GDPR and e-privacy laws require informed consent of how that information will be used and possibly sold.
8. Cloud spawns new products
Through 2022, a fast path to digital will be converting internal capabilities to external revenue-generating products using cloud economics and flexibility.Historically, internal IT teams looking to market unique capabilities haven’t been able to for economic, technical and marketing reasons. However, cloud infrastructure and cloud service providers solve many of these challenges. Supporting scale is the cloud provider’s responsibility, the app store markets the app, and cloud tools make support and enhancement easier. As companies begin to see digital revenue from marketing internal tools, others will follow suit.
9. Gatekeepers gain market share
By 2022, companies leveraging the “gatekeeper” position of the digital giants will capture 40% global market share on average in their industry.In 2019, the digital giants will deliver double-digit revenue growth by attracting more users globally and supporting more usage. These companies control vast economic ecosystems. With increasing connections and users, they are poised to gain even more market share.
10.Consumers ignore security breaches
Through 2021, social media scandals and security breaches will have effectively zero lasting consumer impact.The benefits of using technology will outweigh security and privacy concerns. People generally feel technology companies should be regulated, but despite recent security breaches, most continue using digital services and companies make very limited changes in the wake of an even
Through 2020, 80 percent of AI projects will remain alchemy, run by wizards whose talents won’t scale widely in the organization.
In the last five years, the increasing popularity of AI techniques has facilitated the proliferation of projects across a wide number of organizations worldwide. However, change is still outpacing the production of competent AI professionals. When it comes to AI techniques, the needed talent is not only technically demanding, mathematically savvy data scientists to inventive data engineers, and rigorous operation research professionals to shrewd logisticians, are needed.
“The large majority of existing AI techniques talents are skilled at cooking a few ingredients, but very few are competent enough to master a few recipes — let alone invent new dishes,” said Plummer. “Through 2020, a large majority of AI projects will remain craftily prepared in artisan IT kitchens. The premises of a more systematic and effective production will come when organizations stop treating AI as an exotic cuisine and start focusing on business value first.”
Gartner Symposium in India: November 13-16, 2018; Goa, India