Smart Connections will Account for 97 Percent of Global Mobile Traffic by 2019
Bangalore, Feb. 5, 2015 – According to the latest annual update of the Cisco Visual Networking Index Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast for 2014 to 2019, the ongoing adoption of more powerful mobile devices and machine-to-machine (M2M) connections combined with broader access to faster cellular networks are key contributors to significant mobile traffic growth.
In 2014, 88 percent of global mobile data traffic was “smart” traffic, with advanced computing/multi-media capabilities and a minimum of 3G connectivity, but that figure is expected to rise to 97 percent by 2019.
The worldwide shift from basic-feature phones to smartphones – combined with the continued growth in tablets, a resurgence in laptops with tablet-like capabilities as well as expanding machine-to-machine (M2M) applications – are key factors supporting the increasing smart traffic trend. From a global mobile network perspective, 3G is expected to surpass 2G as the top cellular technology, based on connection share, by 2017. By 2019, 3G networks will support 44 percent of global mobile devices and connections; 4G networks will support 26 percent of connections, though will generate 68 percent of traffic.
In terms of topline traffic growth, the Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast projects that global mobile data traffic will reach an annual run rate of 292 exabytes by 2019, up from 30 exabytes in 2014. These predicted 292 exabytes would represent:
- 292 times more than all Internet Protocol (IP) traffic, fixed and mobile, generated in 2000; or 65 trillion images (e.g., multimedia message service or Instagram)—23 daily images per person on earth for a year; or 6 trillion video clips (e.g., YouTube)—more than two daily video clips per person on earth for a year. (*An exabyte is a unit of information or computer storage equal to one quintillion bytes or one billion gigabytes.)
Key Global Mobile Data Traffic Drivers
From 2014 to 2019, Cisco anticipates that global mobile traffic growth will outpace global fixed traffic growth by a factor of three. Trends driving mobile data traffic growth include:
- More mobile users: By 2019, there will be 5.2 billion mobile users (up from 4.3 billion in 2014). In 2014, nearly 59 percent of the world’s population (7.2 billion people) was comprised of mobile users; by 2019, more than 69 percent of the world’s population (7.6 billion people) will be mobile users.
- More mobile connections: By 2019, there will be approximately 11.5 billion mobile-ready devices/connections, including 8.3 billion personal mobile devices and 3.2 billion M2M connections (up from 7.4 billion total mobile-ready devices and M2M connections in 2014).
- Faster mobile speeds: Average global mobile network speeds will increase 2.4 fold from 2014 (1.7 Mbps) to 2019 (4.0 Mbps).
- More mobile video: By 2019, mobile video will represent 72 percent of global mobile data traffic (up from 55 percent in 2014).
Key India Findings
2014-Year in review-
- 47.3 million net new devices and connections were added to the mobile network in 2014.
- In India, mobile data traffic was 87.9 Petabytes per month in 2014, the equivalent of 22 million DVDs each month or 242 million text messages each second.
- The top 1% of mobile users generate 18% of mobile data traffic, down from 52% at the beginning of 2010 with the inclusion of new to the study Tier 2 operators due to the increased offerings of unlimited plans by tier 2 operators.
2015-2019 Forecast Highlights
- There will be 895.6 Million (67% of India's population) mobile users by 2019, up from 590.3 Million in 2014, a CAGR of 8.7%.
- The number of smartphones will grow 4.7-fold between 2014 and 2019, reaching 651 million in number
- Mobile data traffic will grow 13-fold from 2014 to 2019, a compound annual growth rate of 67%.
- 51% of mobile connections will be 'smart' connections by 2019, up from 8% in 2014
- Video will be 66% of India's mobile data traffic by 2019, compared to 36% at the end of 2014.
- Traffic from wearable devices will grow 16-fold from 2014 to 2019, a compound annual growth rate of 73%.
- Tablet mobile data traffic will grow 75.4-fold from 2014 to 2019, a compound annual growth rate of 137%.
- M2M traffic will grow 42-fold from 2014 to 2019, a compound annual growth rate of 112%.
Link to full report (PDF) here