HDFC Securities study suggests Indian IT is at key inflection point

April 13 2018: The latest  Update to the HDFC Securities Report on IT Sector, titled " Skin in the game" suggests that the India Information Technology sector  is at an inflection point, following a prolonged deceleration. 
Its   view  is  based on:
Up-scaling the value proposition (digital-at-scale,  pipeline,  partner eco-system),
Accelerating demand environment  (improving  macros, contract  trends, rebid opportunity) and market-share gains (full-service  portfolio,  offshore  leverage, large deals), 
Strong operational metrics (new logo addition and midcap IT’s large  account scalability, favourable supply metrics), and  
Strength in balance sheet and cash generation.
Indian  IT  has gained  overe 15% share of global IT services business over  the   last ten years. The study expects the sector (tier-1 IT) to grow at 1.4 times the   global  IT  services.  NorthAmerica and Europe  continue  to be dominant markets  for  the  sector  at  61% and 30%  of revenue respectively, even as Europe has outperformed  recently. Revenue-share of tier-1 IT (vs. large global peers)  has  increased  from  11%  to 27% over the past ten years.
The digital component in the business mix is now large  enough ( more than 23% of revenues) to drive growth at  close  to  double-digit  in the fiscal year 2019-20   with 33% CAGR in digital  and  1.1%  CAGR in legacy.The study suggests companies that achieve high  absolute scale and/or share of digital in the business-mix will be the winners going ahead.
The  survey  within 10  tech  leaders/experts  indicates  increasing  size  of  digital  deals  (68% seeing increase),  unchanged  intensity  of  cloud, automation impact on legacy, and  and  flat   pricing.    The Indian  IT   model has  built-in  significant  operational efficiencies   to mitigate  the impact of increasing thrust of onshore over offshore..

HDFC's top picks are  Infosys, HCL Tech , L&T Tech and L&T Infotech , Zensar and Cyient