Google, AsiaPac will dominate Tablet-type device market: Ovum

Global shipments of portable internet devices based on ‘lite’ operating systems (OSs), which include tablet computers such as the iPad, will hit 150 million per year in 2015 according to market weatcher,Ovum. Their latest study --"Tablets and Other Mobile Internet Devices Forecast: 2010-15" -- predicts that 35% of global shipments in 2015 will be in the Asia-Pacific region, a staggering growth from 2.8 million in 2010 to 52 million in 2015.

The portable devices tracked in Ovum’s forecast are those that use ‘lite’ OSs such as Apple’s iOS, Google’s Android and RIM’s BlackBerry Tablet OS and include tablet devices such as the iPad, Samsung Galaxy Tab and the BlackBerry PlayBook as well as clamshell and convertible form factors.

Says Tony Cripps, Ovum principal analyst: “This huge growth in shipments will be dominated by tablet-style technologies such as the iPad and will mainly be driven by consumers buying devices to complement their smartphones. This will either be as a ‘third device’ where there is a high-penetration PCs or the primary computing device where there is low-penetration.

“Nonetheless, the greater ease of use of smartphones for the majority of consumers means that shipments of the tablet and other ‘lite’ OS devices will not dramatically erode the growing demand for smartphones.”

Ovum predicts, North America (23% of global shipments) and Western Europe (19%) will experience the greatest penetration of tablet and other mobile internet devices by 2015. However, the largest regional slice of shipments by the end of the period - due to the size of the potential addressable markets and the relatively low penetration of PCs (desktop and portable) - will be the Asia Pacific region, which will account for 35 per cent of all such device shipments in 2015. Ovum’s figures also suggest that by the end of the forecast period, Google’s operating systems, primarily Android but also likely to include Chrome OS, will dominate the market, pushing current frontrunner Apple’s iOS into second place.

Cripps explains: “We believe that Apple constituted 90% of the market in 2010. However, by 2015 we expect this market share to drop to 35% and Google’s market share to rise to 36%. Other software platforms, such as RIM’s Blackberry Tablet OS and HP’s webOS, will find some success but between them all they will only account for 29% of the market.

“This is because the dominant software platforms, Apple and Google, will attract the most attention from the cream of the developers. As a result they will have the best, most talked about applications and content and, when all is said and done, this is what people will consider when making a purchasing decision.”

Definition: Tablets and other mobile Internet devices" refers to small portable computing devices (i.e. those that are designed to be used untethered), in a variety of form factors (including tablets, clamshells, and convertibles) and not otherwise categorized as smartphones or PCs (laptops and netbooks). Such devices are further defined by their

use of a "lite" operating system. The forecast excludes mobile broadband devices that lack these platforms, such as cellular dongles, as well as devices with similar form factor but based on full PC OSs such as Windows 7, Mac OS, and Linux.  

Jan 17 2011