November 22 2014: The latest edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report, reveals that proliferation of mobile technology continues at a rapid pace: 90 percent of the world’s population over six years old is predicted to have a mobile phone by 2020.
Furthermore, by 2020 smartphone subscriptions are forecast to top 6.1 billion. Fastest growth for new mobile subscriptions was found in India and China, with 18 million and 12 million net additions, respectively, in Q3 2014.
Says Rima Qureshi, Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy Officer and Head of M&A, Ericsson: “The falling cost of handsets, coupled with improved usability and increasing network coverage, are factors that are making mobile technology a global phenomenon that will soon be available to the vast majority of the world’s population, regardless of age or location.”
Smartphone penetration: 800 million new subscriptions in 2014
Smartphone growth continues as 65-70 percent of all phones sold in the third quarter of 2014 were smartphones, compared with 55 percent in the same quarter for 2013.
Despite this increased rate of sales, which will see the addition of an estimated 800 million new smartphone subscriptions by the end of 2014, the report finds there is still plenty of room for growth in the sector. Smartphones currently account for just 37 percent of all mobile phone subscriptions, meaning that many users have yet to make the switch to the more feature-rich, internet-friendly option.
The report predicts a strong uptake in the coming years as the number rises from 2.7 billion smartphone subscriptions today to the forecasted 6.1 billion in 2020.
Video continues to dominate mobile networks: in 4G-dominated networks it currently constitutes 45-55 percent of mobile traffic, driven largely by increased usage of video streaming and improvements in the mobile video experience.
Video is increasingly appearing as part of other online applications such as news and adverts, and on social media platforms. At the same time, growth in video streaming is being driven by access to over-the-top (OTT) services and content, such as those provided by YouTube.
Devices used to watch video are also evolving. Many have larger screens, enabling higher picture quality for streamed video, which results in video being consumed on all types of devices and in higher quantities, both at home and on the move.
In terms of future outlook, Ericsson estimates that mobile video traffic will increase tenfold by 2020, ultimately constituting around 55 percent of all mobile data traffic in 2020.
5G: subscriptions on the horizon
5G is expected to be commercially deployed in 2020, and the technology is predicted to have a faster uptake than 4G LTE, just as 4G had a faster uptake than 3G. The difference here is that, in addition to new radio technologies, 5G will also encompass evolved versions of existing radio access (such as 3G and 4G), cloud, and core technologies to cater for the thousands of new ways that mobile technology will be used. 5G growth will be driven to a large extent by new use cases, especially in machine-type communications.
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India-specific portion of the report: |
~45% of India’s population will be covered by LTE in 2020.
GSM was rolled out in India during the mid-1990s.
By the end of 2013, the population coverage for GSM/EDGE
networks reached over 90 percent and it is expected to
increase to over 95 percent by 2020. There are, however, still
large rural areas that remain uncovered. India’s commercial
WCDMA/HSPA networks were first deployed in 2008.
However, the roll-out has been relatively slow, and it was
estimated that WCDMA/HSPA networks covered over
20 percent of population by the end of 2013.
Mobile data user demographics are evolving fast in India,
with mobile broadband starting to bridge the digital divide
between the rural and urban populations. Mobile data
usage and services are becoming increasingly mainstream,
with a growing proportion of people from lower-income
groups now downloading apps and streaming video content
from the internet using mobile devices. It is predicted that
WCDMA/HSPA population coverage will reach over
90 percent by 2020, primarily driven by a growing demand
for data services and the launch of more affordable
smartphones. This demand will be further fuelled by the
introduction of LTE, and it is forecast that around 45 percent
of the population will be covered by this technology by 2020.
Currently, India has much less mobile broadband spectrum
allocated than markets with high mobile broadband
penetration. The release of additional spectrum in the
relevant bands will make services more affordable, while
the harmonization of spectrum will allow a lower cost
device ecosystem to evolve. increase to over 95 percent
by 2020. There are, however, still large rural areas that
remain uncovered. India’s commercial
WCDMA/HSPA networks were first deployed in 2008.
However, the roll-out has been relatively slow, and it was
estimated that WCDMA/HSPA networks covered over
20 percent of population by the end of 2013.
Mobile data user demographics are evolving fast in India,
with mobile broadband starting to bridge the digital divide
between the rural and urban populations. Mobile data
usage and services are becoming increasingly mainstream,
with a growing proportion of people from lower-income
groups now downloading apps and streaming video content
from the internet using mobile devices. It is predicted that
WCDMA/HSPA population coverage will reach over
90 percent by 2020, primarily driven by a growing demand
for data services and the launch of more affordable
smartphones. This demand will be further fuelled by the
introduction of LTE, and it is forecast that around 45 percent
of the population will be covered by this technology by 2020.
Currently, India has much less mobile broadband spectrum
allocated than markets with high mobile broadband
penetration. The release of additional spectrum in the
relevant bands will make services more affordable, while
the harmonization of spectrum will allow a lower cost
device ecosystem to evolve. This will play a key role in
driving mobile broadband growth in India, and will be an
increasingly important driver of mobile networks’ overall
capacity, quality and user experience.
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PDF of full report here