May 3 2015: Leading global brand in the logistics -- DHL has conducted the first ever scenario study with a focus on global trends and developments in the e-commerce sector and their likely impact on the logistics industry over the next eleven years.
"Global E-Tailing 2025" analyzes the role which e-commerce will play in consumers’ lives in the year 2025 and how it will influence consumerism, retail and logistics. The study found that as online retail continues to gain popularity in both developed and emerging markets, logistics companies are set to play a key role in providing vital supply chain management solutions that are able to evolve with consumers’ changing shopping habits.
We bring you the introduction to the study by Jürgen Gerdes, Member of the Board of Management Post - eCommerce - Parcel Deutsche Post DHL -- and extracts from the India specific sections. We also provide a link to the full text of this important study at the end of this piece.
We are all fascinated by the future. It is a huge determining factor in our current lives. We aim to give our children a good education. We try to conserve energy and raw materials. We build up financial assets for future descendants. To quote Albert Einstein: “The futureinterests me far more than the past, as I intend living in it.“
Of course, we don’t know exactly how we will be living, working, consuming and relaxing in 20 years’ time. Nevertheless, there is good reason to think through a number of possible scenarios, as this enables us to focus on actively shaping our future.
Deutsche Post DHL is the leading global logistics partner of international online and mail order retailers. We have a special responsibility toward these companies and the many millions of end customers: If we are able to identify future trends correctly and gear our products and services accordingly, then we will make their lives much easier.
What’s more, with our logistics infrastructure we help ensure the long-term success of the online and mail order retailers.|
This is an ongoing process: our present innovative distribution methods are environmentally friendly and so flexibly scalable that they make it easy even for small firms to market their goods internationally. They provide consumers – especially those who don’t have a couple of dozen stores nearby to shop in – with a previously unknown degree of convenience and accessibility. And yet: the online and mail order retailing market is still in its infancy, but it is developing at a rapid pace.
This study will help us all to keep pace with these developments and chart the way forward as effectively as possible. “Global E-Tailing 2025” is the first scenario study with a focus on global trends and developments in the e-commerce sector and their likely impact on the logistics industry over the next eleven years.
The authors have carried out their research in highly developed markets such as New York, Berlin, London and Shanghai, as well as in potential future centers of consumer activity, for example Lagos, Bangalore and Jakarta. They talked to companies and to private consumers and interviewed international experts in the retailing sector, asking such questions as: Which e-commerce concepts will establish themselves and in which regions and markets? What will the efficient logistics chain of the future look like? How will cross-border commerce develop in years to come?
The result of this intensive research is four possible scenarios for the future of online retailing, coupled with the implications for logistics in the year 2025. It goes without saying that we cannot tell which of the four scenarios will come closest to reality or whether the e-tailing sector will evolve along completely different lines. At the same time, we are learning to think in new directions, to factor the unconventional into our forward planning, and to remain open minded and ready to respond.
India profile ( full stats: pg 106 of report)
SLUMBERING GIANT The population of India is forecast to exceed that of China by the year 2025 – thanks to a growth rate of 19 percent – but in economic terms China will still outperform the subcontinent. In 2025, even a 174 percent increase in GDP will not be sufficient for India to reach the level which China has attained in 2013. In India, the response to increasing household income (+249 percent) is quite different, with the primary focus on consumption. Thus, retail sales grow at a higher rate than household income. With a low rate of urbanization and moderate growth, the Internet community in cities remains small: only 10 percent of the population has access and only one person in 100 has a broadband connection.
India Trend spotting: Bangalore: Micropreneurs” with their own e-tailing range. In India, many products are manufactured by family groups – and then sold through online platforms to an increasing extent. Marketplace services such as CraftsVilla.com are currently very successful.
Link to full report